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  • opta预测枪手41.7%胜！阿森纳16年未进欧冠四强，期间皇马6次夺冠

    • opta预测枪手41.7%胜！阿森纳16年未进欧冠四强，期间皇马6次夺冠

    2025-04-10 08:00:21

    【关键数据前瞻】

    Opta超级计算机预测阿森纳本场胜率41.7%

    两队历史交锋中，阿森纳曾在2006年欧冠1/8决赛以总比分1-0淘汰皇马

    皇马在欧冠淘汰赛阶段22次面对英格兰球队，取得11场胜利

    【交战背景】

    这场欧冠1/4决赛将上演英超与西甲次席的直接对话。对于阿森纳而言，这是打破16年欧冠四强魔咒的绝佳机会。他们上次晋级半决赛还要追溯到2009年，而皇马在此期间已六度问鼎欧洲之巅。

    【伤病名单影响】

    枪手方面遭遇严重减员：哈弗茨（肌肉拉伤）、加布里埃尔（膝伤）确定缺席，卡拉菲奥里（脚踝）、热苏斯（腿筋）和富安健洋（小腿）仍在恢复中。不过本-怀特已在上周末对阵埃弗顿时复出，廷伯也进入了替补名单。

    皇马方面，库尔图瓦有望复出，这位比利时门神本赛季欧冠面对预期进球值（xG）时多扑出了4个球。卡瓦哈尔、米利唐、楚阿梅尼（停赛）缺阵。

    值得注意的是，皇马在最近8次欧冠淘汰赛首回合保持不败（5胜3平），过去13个客场首回合仅2负。

    【阿森纳本赛季欧冠后防失利】

    场均预期失球0.88（本赛季欧冠最低）

    实际场均失球0.6（仅次于国米0.2）

    门将拉亚面对预期射正进球值（xGOT）少丢了3.7个球

    姆巴佩始终是最大威胁：

    欧冠生涯16次对阵英格兰球队攻入10球

    本赛季对曼城两回合斩获4球

    有望冲击本泽马保持的单届淘汰赛对英格兰球队进球纪录（2021-22赛季7球）

    【历史交锋】

    两队仅有的两次交锋均发生在2006年欧冠16强战，亨利在伯纳乌打入制胜球，助枪手总比分1-0晋级并最终杀入决赛。

    皇马近年对英超球队战绩彪炳：自2017-18赛季以来，22场欧冠淘汰赛对阵英格兰球队取得11胜，近三年战成利物浦、切尔西和曼城。

    【Opta模型预测】

    阿森纳首回合取胜概率41.7%

    皇马客场获胜概率31.1%

    平局概率27.2%

    有趣的是，上赛季欧冠四分之一决赛首回合，两支俱乐部都收获了平局。阿森纳2-2战平拜仁慕尼黑，而皇马对阵曼城则以3-3收场。/阅读下一篇/返回网易首页下载网易新闻客户端

    相关标签: 欧冠 曼城 枪手 英超 皇马 阿森纳 皇家马德里
    上一篇：对战国米7人伤缺让孔帕尼犯难，加布报销阿森纳怎防姆巴佩利刃？
    下一篇：被改为企业招待区！BBC：81岁曼联老球迷被迫让出坐了45年的座位

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